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Forecast – FORECAST AGGREGATOR

ACCELERATED CONVERGENCE

 

The “Transformative Twelve” can deliver significant impacts to food systems by 2030

 

The power of technology innovation is helping transform global food systems by helping to face the main issues on safety, quality, stability and enhancing the sustainability of the food chains.
Technology is driving change in the shape of demand (e.g. alternative raw materials and proteins; food sensing technology for safety, quality and traceability; nutrigenetics for personalized nutrition, lab-created foods), processing, preparation and distribution. Technology is also promoting value-chain links (e.g. mobile service delivery; big data and advanced analytics; ICT for real-time supply-chain; blockchain-enabled traceability), and it is creating more effective production and delivery systems (precision agriculture; gene-editing for multi-trait seed improvements; microbiome technologies to enhance resilience; off-grid renewable energy generation and storage; advanced robotics, Artificial Intelligence and 3D-printing). The GRIN (Genetic, Robotic, Information and Nano-processes) technologies are one of the models that is expected will have an impact on the entire socio-economic globalization context.

TRENDS

PLANT AND ANIMAL GENOMICS AND RELATED BIOTECHNOLOGIES 

Biological science-based technologies and approaches have the potential to improve animal and plant breeding and food crop production in a sustainable way over the next 40 years.

Genome sequencing and genotyping platforms will collect genetic data from animals, plants and entire ecologies thereby breeding programs will be set with the aim of improving the production efficiency, functional differentiation, and protection of natural capital of primary production. The combination of these techniques will also allow the transformation of animal and plant breeding by introducing traits that are important for the entire food value processing chain or optimize the genetic base of plants for disease and abiotic stresses resistance, environmental adaptation and agronomic performances.
The success of these technologies will be guaranteed by the use of sensor technologies that record phenotypes are driven by the farmers’ need for information necessary for animal and crop production management as well as by new systems biology-based approaches built on combining advances in “omics”-style technologies with all aspects of crop management using increased computational power.

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HUMAN, ANIMAL AND SOIL MICROBIOTA 

Microorganisms have been well known in human history. Science highlighted the main role of selected microorganisms, strains or cultures on human life and health, as well as on food production (e.g. fermented products) and soil (e.g. definition of “terroir”), by identifying also the beneficial interaction of some microorganisms to achieve specific ecosystem or beneficial effects.
The concept of “microbiota” (e.g. all the microorganisms found in a specific environment, including bacteria, viruses, fungi, protozoa, and Archaea) has been recently introduced highlighting the specificity of its composition and genetics in each location and living organism and corresponding effects on health and well-being of the humans and farm animal, and more in general of the planet.
Research results evidence that the specific microbiota of the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) in humans and the related vast number of metabolites produced by these organisms seems to be affected by our diet and eating habits while, in turn, these microbes influence food digestion, the conversion of food substrates into beneficial or detrimental bioactives and the production of a complex mix of molecules that released into the GIT, may function as signaling molecules or have associated bioactivities.
…but, what’s the connection with technologies?

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DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES

Technological developments, shifts in power relationships and new business models can cause disruption in agri-food supply chains.
Emerging digital technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence, sensors, and data analytics) will lead to a metamorphosis in many processes, products and jobs affecting also established roles and responsibilities among societal actors, and likely also how government, business, and civil society are defined and interconnected. They will develop new tools and processes for co-production, co-creation, co-monitoring, co-use or co-consumption.
Key digital technologies that will affect the food-related sectors include sensors to collect and capture data; data storage, transfer, and communication technology; data analytics and analysis; systems that deliver the desired response from the analyzed data to the user.

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NANOTECHNOLOGY

Nanotechnology is referred to as the engineering of functional systems at the molecular scale with nanomaterial developed and applied in a wide range of sectors like energy, drug delivery, cosmetics, and food.
Applications of food nanotechnology are of growing interest in the food industry and in particular in some areas like food packing, food safety, and quality. Nanotechnologies applied to packaging materials are leading the development of packaging technologies promoting innovative performances and increasing the shelf-life of foods. Indicators, sensors or biosensors in smart systems used to detect pathogens, allergens, contaminants, and degradants that can affect food quality and safety and when applied to packaging allow both to interact with products to extend shelf-life and to inform the consumer on quality or safety changes of the product.

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SIGNALS

REIMAGINING MONEY, POWER BALANCE AND OWNERSHIP

 

Dramatic economic shifts are rearticulating the economic models (and the systems behind them)

 

Trade threats, leasing and sharing instead of owning, cryptocurrencies, alternative securitization, globalization and the 4IR (Fourth Industrial Revolution) are modifying in a non-reversible way the meaning of food economy itself.
The Maker Economy and the Instant Entrepreneurship are democratizing food production, processing and design. Prices of food and trade threats are used as a power weapon to address globalisation and the crisis of the middle class. Money and ownership are turning virtual, even if they are more real than ever as a hot topic for food security and food quality. The convenience format that allows the balance between demand and offer is shifting and introducing a new frame for traditional economics and economy models in the food industry.
Financial literacy is widening models and requires new skills and talents to make to food consumption proactive and the food entrepreneurs more powerful and competitive.

TRENDS

PRICE VOLATILITY AND LAND GRABBING

Rapid and unpredictable changes in food prices are a feature of modern markets. For some, they represent a financial opportunity. For others concerned with the welfare of farmers and consumers of agricultural products, this volatility is a problem – but not everyone agrees on what to do about it. The same is for land availability and increasing phenomena of land grabbing.

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NEW CURRENCIES AND ALTERNATIVE FINANCE TO BUY AND TO INVEST ON FOOD

Love it or hate it, cryptocurrencies – like Banana Coin – have now grown to a point where they cannot be ignored. They are here to stay -at least for the foreseeable future. And the same is for crowdfunding (equity crowdfunding, included), microbonds, value-chain financing and P2P lending. Alternative finance and new currencies will change definitively the way in which transactions will be regulated.

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SHIFT IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER

By 2040, the economies of E7 countries will be double G7 countries. This growth is also giving rise to a new middle class or “mass affluent” with a significant purchasing power. Two-thirds of the global middle class will reside in Asia Pacific by 2030.

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STARTUP AND INSTANT ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Turning ideas into action comes with ease in the digital age. Consumers will be more resourceful and creative than ever, and will be seeking ways to channel that into actual business ideas. Startups will grow and change also traditional food companies.

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SHARING ECONOMY FOR THE NEXT INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

The sharing economy is one of the fastest growing business trends in history, with investors dumping more than $23 billion in venture capital funding since 2010 into startups operating with a share-based model. “Access over ownership” is a shift that has taken root, as digital and mobile technologies make it ever easier to access goods and services on-demand. It will be no longer a millennial preference, but a part of modern society.

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SIGNALS

A NEW CIVIC DISCOURSE

 

Market and consumption trends are rearticulating the identity of consumers and communities in a global society.

 

It’s not just a matter of market share and consumption trends. Food is one of the rare commodities for which the potential market is 100% — everyone needs it.
The future of food is undoubtedly changing, but while many of us have dabbled in UberEATS8, few have substituted meals with bottled drinks, or chocolate bars with grasshopper bars.
Our established relationship with food may well be what stands in the way of its disruption. So, can we disrupt in a way that allows us to keep our relationship with food? For example, the social aspects of eating are sustenance for another

 

part of our human needs — can they be bundled and commoditized too? Perhaps they can — the Nourished Project has explored using virtual reality to make users believe they are eating delicious foods.

SIGNALS

POLICIES THAT MATTER

 

Self regulation v/s bundled food policy will drive the future of the food regulatory cascade.


The main challenges in the food systems are asking for related policy options. On the other side, policy and regulation can inspire, orient, prioritize changes in the future of food and food-related issues.
Various are the policy options that can help the food players to better address future challenges whether you consider the “Global-” or the “Pharma-” Food” scenarios, or if you consider the “Regional Food” or the “Partnership Food” scenarios (see the latest JRC Study for the EU Parliament).
Emerging arguments will be dealing with how, in the future, the regulatory food framework will decline pairs of divergent trends:
a) self-regulation vs. common standards to address the maker economy, globalisation and international trade and mobility;
b) sector-specific vs. bundled or integrated policy, i.e. when considering diet and health or start-up flexibility and related easy procedures or standards to market functional foods.
The intersection of the three usual regulatory drivers (i.e. fiscal pressure, relevance to public health and environment) leaves the food sector more exposed to significant changes in future regulation in a sort of “regulatory cascade” that will accelerate complexity and address main core aspects of the future food (product content; product labelling; on-packaging health warning; POS Information; advertising restriction; sale and possession; point of consumption; product taxes).

TRENDS

FOOD ETHICS AND SECURITY WILL PUSH MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE FORWARD

Global challenges (i.e. plastic pollution) and threats (i.e. demographic changes and malnutrition originating migratory flows) will ask more an more global responses.

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NEW SKILLS FOR NEW JOBS

If the WEF analysis is true, the most part of the today’s jobs won’t be anymore in the list of the most relevant jobs in 2050. This will totally transform the corporate strategies related to recruitment and training. When machines become workers, what is the human role?

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PREDICTIVE PROTECTION AND ADAPTIVE REGULATION

The combination of high privacy, fairer value-chain, food ethics with elevated expectation about the role of regulation in the future of the food industry leads to more intuitive products, services and features to help consumers and communities live better, safer or more efficiently. How could regulation be responsive to rapid change and an unknowable future?

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A NEW MODEL FOR A NEW SOCIAL COMPACT

Greater understanding of the behavioural science behind habit formation leads to more policy makers intentionally creating addictive experiences that capture time, money and loyalty to co-created policies. Will we renew our policies for food innovation through reform — or revolution?

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GLANCEABLE REGULATORY CONTENT

Traceability, Safety, Cannabis and Food supplement will explode the forms of contents and of creation in food regulation. According to the US National Center for Biotechnology Information, the human race crossed a significant milestone in 2013 when our average attention span moved to only 8 seconds, from 12 seconds in 2000.

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SIGNALS

ENVIRONMENTAL EATING

 

Environment is one of the main paradigms of the economy and society; it contributes to defining the overall scenario inside which all the other forces and drivers operate affecting the food system.

 

“Tell me what you eat, and I will tell you how you are, how you will be, and how the environment that surrounds you is”. Simplified into a slogan, this is basically the message of the Double Pyramid of Food and Environmental Impact developed by the Barilla Centre for Food & Nutrition (BCFN): a graphical representation which synthetically translates the complexity of the data derived from latest scientific studies on the nutritional value and the environmental impact of individual foods, to promote a diet that is sustainable for the individual and the ecosystem.

Natural resources are progressively decreasing due to population growth and new consumption models while scientific evidences from USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) highlight that the nutritional value of products from the primary production is lower than the 50’s due to intensive farming (monoculture) and breeding models along the depletion of nutrients in the soil.
Factors that are highly affecting our environment and the trends in the consumption of non-renewable resources include among others the climate change, the serious water stress, the predominance of fossil fuel-produced electricity thereby the biodiversity is under serious risk.
In the agrifood sector additional aspects that are affecting the resources availability like the loss/waste of resources (eg. use of resources for biofuel production, the underutilized waste from food processing), the impact of water consumption and the damage of CO2 emitted in the environment due to to food processing.
Increasingly important is the concept of “environmental sustainability” referred to the ability to maintain the quality and reproducibility of natural resources and the search for sustainable agricultural and food processing paradigms are of the great challenges for the next twenty years.

TRENDS

SUSTAINABILITY AGAINST THE CLIMATE CHANGE

The planet will reach the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030, precipitating the risk of extreme drought, wildfires, floods and food shortages for hundreds of millions of people. The date, which falls well within the lifetime of many people alive today, is based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

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FOOD LANDSCAPE AND ORIGIN AS A GROWING ASSET

Cultivars and monovarietal products will grow in relevance as a way to protect landscape and biodiversity.

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A “REINVENTING PLASTICS” FUTURE

At EU level more than 1.4 million people work in the plastics industry, which is worth over EUR 350 billion each year, but opportunities are being missed because of low recycling rates and a high reliance on virgin materials. The coming plastics strategy will aim to improve framework conditions for investment and innovation, and help the industry become more circular and resource-efficient, bringing more jobs and further growth.

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ALTERNATIVE PROTEINS AND INSECTS TO EAT

Global Edible Insects Market Will Reach USD 1,181.6 Million by 2023

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NEW BLUE AND GREEN CHALLENGES IN THE FOOD AND FOOD-RELATED INDUSTRY

Water scarcity and push towards higher energy-efficiency will transform not only food production, processing and consumption but will affect eco-tourism, food-related technologies and other food-related industries.

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SIGNALS

FOODOMICS AND FOOD GENETICS

 

“Bioactive compounds” are compounds that occur in nature, as part of the food chain, that have the ability to interact with one or more components of the living tissue by showing an effect on human health.

 

Food science is moving towards the so-called “genetic revolution” and focuses on bioactive compounds and genetics. The diversity of bioactive compounds derives from the infinite combinations of fundamental functional groups. The potential of each food matrix come from the combined and concerted action of nutrient components and biologically active compounds, i.e. polyphenols, carotenoids, lignans, glucosinolates, terpenoids, limonoids, phytosterols, etc., that can lead into a wide spectra of biological and physiological functions. Dietary components have beneficial roles beyond basic nutrition, leading to the advancement of the concept and perception of food as functional and nutraceutical. New potentials/features of nutrients should be considered, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

 

Since the content of nutrient and bioactive components could be significantly affected by numerous factors, i.e. the variety, season, location, ripening, growing conditions, technological and domestic processes; the wide range of factors is continuously increasing and enlarging in line with the new connotations of food chain, and directly links to food genetics and CRISPS.

 

In parallel, this widen the potential impact of Open Science and Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) and ask for jobs and skills not yet enough explored nor available.

SIGNALS

AMPLIFIED INTERSECTIONS

 

Different mixtures are changing the way to think about the food sector: it’s a new game-set, a different web altering the usual ways we consider the value chains.

 

Trends are “profits waiting to happen”, as Chris Sanderson from the Future Laboratory uses to say. In the business world, “transformational change” involves a company making a radical change in

 

its business model, often requiring changes in company structure, culture and management. “Transformational industry” means that, over the next two decades, the traditional food value chains (agriculture and stewardship; manufacturing and branding; distribution and logistics; retail and information; consumption and taste; disposal and renewal) will be reshaped by a totally new set of complex relationships, that is re-arranging the value-chains from efficiency to flexibility and include more and more daily and disruptive intersections with other industries.

TRENDS

HYBRIDIZATION

Cross-sector comparison is not anymore limited to get some inspiring insights on innovation trends. Now it’s the new normal, mixing and merging sectors, by using food as driver for a new multi-sector convergence.

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BLOCKCHAIN-BASED NETWORKS AND TRUST

The blockchain is pretty technical at its core, but basically it’s a way for digital information to be stored and distributed, but not copied. It is the ultimate peer-to-peer network.

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REMIXING STANDARDIZATION

A new era in personalization is dawning due to the expansion of online and mobile food shopping. Food safety and regulatory frameworks will make a new model of standardization emerge.

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RETAIL AND KNOWLEDGE THEATRES

The more open innovation and open source sustainability grow as trends and the more real estate will need to regenerate spaces and reinvent building so to transform simple “spaces” into “places”, the more retailing experience will be affected by a new sense of belonging for producers and customers.

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DISRUPTIVE LOGISTICS

Super-granular address systems, global collaborative networks and automated customs management are set to cause major disruption in the logistics. In the world of same-day delivery, B2B and B2C customers alike expect their deliveries to arrive in the shortest possible time. Reliable track-and-trace and hassle-free handling of complaints or returns are taken for granted. As a result, food companies need to embrace the latest technologies if they are to keep up.

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SIGNALS

ARTIFICIAL OVERTARGETING

 

Lured by the promise of big data, organisations tend segment audiences too narrowly and unintentionally end up abandoning large groups.

 

Both in politics and in market strategies, a global shift going towards individualism/tribes/groups is emerging, and it crosses age, ethnic, and social groups worldwide. It’s one of the aspects that refers to increasing thoughtful and mindful consumers and citizens who take care and, increasingly, action as well.

 

Demographic changes are opening new frontiers for pressure and opportunities in the food sector. The Silver Economy and ageing of population will be a sort of new “Gold Mine” for food. Millennials and Gen Z, on the other side, open up the market to new talents and to an extended (by physical and technological networks) human capacity that is modifying innovation, social ties and creating different platforms for citizenship and for identity in a global society.

 

An extremely visible and accessible world demands new sensemaking and explores a completely new dimension about the use of social innovation and data can enhance food-related decisions rather than automate them.